Your Beginning | Market Classroom

WHAT IF INFLATION COOLS… BUT THE MARKET DOESN’T RALLY?

This week, November 9–13, financial markets face two important inflation reports.

📊 Tuesday: Consumer Price Index (CPI)

📊 Friday: Producer Price Index (PPI)

Both releases could influence expectations for interest rates, Treasury yields, and stock-market valuations.

But here’s something many investors overlook.

Market Signal:

Microsoft reported $90 billion in revenue. Azure grew 43% and crossed $100 billion in annual cloud revenue for the first time ever. The market bounced hard, S&P up over 1%, Nasdaq up over 2%.

But Meta told the opposite story. Earnings missed, free cash flow dropped 91%, and they raised spending anyway. Stock down 9%.

Macro Lesson - What is "Forward Guidance"?

Yesterday the Fed held rates steady but gave zero forward guidance. Forward guidance is when the Fed tells the market what they're thinking about future rate moves. Remove it, and markets have to guess. That's why you saw a selloff yesterday - uncertainty costs more than bad news. Today's rally is markets deciding the Microsoft beat matters more than the Fed's silence.

Actionable Takeaway:

Markets closed Friday with the S&P at 7,412 and the Nasdaq at 24,976. Tech led the week lower; Nasdaq down 4% while the S&P held relatively steady.

This week is heavy. Here's what matters:

Wednesday: FOMC rate decision. Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 2:30 PM ET. This is the headline event of the week.

Wednesday after close: Microsoft and Meta report earnings. Two mega-caps on the same day as the Fed decision.

Thursday: GDP drops at 8:30 AM. Apple and Amazon report after close.

Friday: PCE inflation data; the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.

Good morning Money Makers,

Markets are bouncing today but keep your head straight. Chips leading the rebound; Samsung +7.4%, SK Hynix +6.4% overnight. Memory chips surging. But breadth is narrow. This is bargain hunting after last week's selloff, not a recovery.

The underneath story: Nvidia disclosed a 9.3% stake in Nebius Group; they're investing in the companies buying their chips. AI infrastructure demand is still being funded. GM also beat earnings; EPS $3.57, raised guidance. Non-tech beating matters for the rotation.

Two risks hanging over this market: 50% tariffs on Canadian goods (effective Aug 19) and Iran strikes day 10; oil above $90, gas topped $4. If oil keeps climbing, it feeds inflation into the Fed's July 29 decision.

What to watch this week:

📍 Wednesday after close: Alphabet + Tesla earnings

The market tried to recover today. It couldn't.

Early session: chips led a strong bounce; semis up 2%+, cloud names all green. But by close, all three indices finished red. Dow -0.59%. S&P -0.19%. Nasdaq -0.05%.

Here's what happened underneath:

1. Profit-taking before earnings. The biggest earnings week of the season starts Wednesday; Alphabet, Tesla, Intel. Institutional money bought the dip early, then locked in gains and stepped back. No reason to hold through earnings volatility when you can sell into the bounce.

2. The Kimi K3 hangover isn't gone. Last week's selloff was driven by fears that a cheaper, more efficient Chinese AI model would reduce demand for AI chips. Today's bounce was Morningstar calling that fear "irrational." But the late reversal says investors aren't convinced yet. They want to see Alphabet's numbers first.

3. Oracle credit downgrade. S&P downgraded Oracle to BBB; one notch above junk. If a…

Market opens in about 30 minutes and here's what the tape is telling us:

📉 S&P futures down 0.87% - semiconductor selloff is extending

📉 Nasdaq under pressure - Netflix down 8% after-hours on Q3 guidance miss

🛢️ Oil surging - Brent above $85, strongest weekly gain since April

🥇 Gold broke below $4,000 - steepest weekly decline in 6 weeks

Quick hit: Netflix beat on EPS and grew revenue 13%. The stock is down because of forward guidance, not because the business is broken. Ad revenue is on track to double to $3 billion. The AI infrastructure thesis didn't break overnight; a management forecast did.

MARKET OPEN - July 15, 2026

Yesterday's Close:

S&P 500: 7,543 (+0.4%)

Nasdaq: 26,107 (+0.9%)

Dow: 52,508 (flat)

10Y Yield: 4.59% (easing)

June CPI - 3.8% ✅

Down from 4.2% in May. Inflation is cooling. This is the direction we needed to see.

Market reaction - mixed

Nasdaq up slightly. S&P and Dow pulling back. The market isn't fully celebrating yet because all eyes are now on bank guidance calls.

Bank earnings this morning:

- Wells Fargo ✅ beat on top and bottom lines

evening money makers, full week ahead breakdown.

Monday wildcard- Strait of Hormuz. Shipping traffic halved July 9th after renewed fighting. If the closure holds or escalates over the weekend, Monday opens with oil volatility. That bleeds into energy stocks, transportation costs, and inflation expectations; which directly impacts Tuesday's CPI read.

Watch oil at the open before anything else.

Tuesday 8:30 AM ET- June CPI. Fed median forecast is 3.6%. An upside surprise with Hormuz-driven energy prices already elevated = rate cut odds drop fast. That compresses growth multiples. Be positioned before that print, not after.

Also Tuesday - Big bank earnings. JPMorgan, Goldman, BofA, Wells Fargo, Citi. Watch net interest margins and loan loss provisions. That's where consumer stress shows up first.

Your Monday checklist:

MARKET SIGNAL

@Everyone Today was a rotation day. Samsung's mixed earnings triggered a sharp selloff across chip and memory stocks: Micron, Intel, and AMD all down 5%+ - while oil spiked on renewed tension in the Strait of Hormuz. Capital moved out of high-valuation tech and into defensive sectors and energy.

MACRO TRANSLATION

This is not a market-wide crash; the Dow actually touched a fresh record high before pulling back. It's a sector story, not an economy story. When one mega-cap earnings report disappoints even slightly, the whole chip sector gets repriced because valuations there have been stretched. At the same time, geopolitical risk keeps putting a floor under oil prices. Two separate stories, same result: money moving from "expensive and growthy" to "safe and steady" for a day.

ACTIONABLE TAKEAWAY

Long-term investors: this is noise, not a signal. A diversified portfolio is built to have some things red and…

Alright Money Makers,

markets have been dark since Thursday so let's get you caught up before Monday's bell. Three stories that matter.

1. The Jobs Report Sent a Message

Thursday's June jobs report was a reality check. 57,000 jobs added when economists expected 115,000. Unemployment ticked to 4.2%.

Now here's what everyone's getting wrong about this; they're treating it like a warning sign. It's not. This is the economy cooling down from a sprint to a jog. Fewer jobs being created means less wage pressure, which means the Fed doesn't have to panic about inflation.

What this means for you: If you're job hunting, yeah it's tougher out there. But if you're building wealth? This is breathing room. A cooling labor market means interest rates stay stable, which means your savings account and fixed income keep their yields, and your stock portfolio doesn't face aggressive rate hike pressure.

June 29, 2026

Hey Money Makers,

I wasn't able to jump on video tonight but I didn't want to leave you without your breakdown. Here's everything you need to know 👇

🟢 Why the market was green today

1. AI infrastructure confirmed its strength

Samsung and SK Hynix announced a $518 billion chipmaking hub investment in South Korea. That's institutional confirmation that AI demand is real and accelerating. Applied Materials jumped 10.8% on the news alone. Nvidia rose 1.3% and single-handedly lifted the S&P 500.

Sunday, June 28 | Luxentrics Capital

Two major events to have on your radar heading into this week:

 Iran & The Strait of Hormuz - The ceasefire is fracturing. US strikes resumed overnight. Oil markets will react at Monday open.

 China surrounding Taiwan - 250 naval vessels deployed. The semiconductor supply chain is directly in the crossfire.

 Thursday - Jobs Report (NFP) drops early due to July 4th. Biggest economic number of the month.

Stay tuned tonight; I'll be dropping my full market open analysis with everything you need to know before Monday.

June 26, 2026

Good morning Money Makers 🖤 Happy Friday. let's break down everything moving markets today so you go into the weekend with full clarity.

📉 FUTURES THIS MORNING

S&P 500 down 0.49%. Nasdaq down over 1%. Dow down 0.12%. Tech is leading the drop and here is exactly why:

🍎 THE APPLE STORY

Yesterday Apple raised prices on every Mac and iPad by up to 25%; some models went up $500 overnight. The reason? The AI memory shortage. AI data centers are consuming so much memory chip supply that Apple literally cannot source chips at the old price anymore. So they passed the cost to you. Stock dropped 6%. Worst day in over a year. Microsoft did the same thing with Xbox.

Core PCE: +3.4% year over year - came in as

expected

No surprise. Market is NOT panicking.

This is the best case scenario. Inflation is still elevated but it did not accelerate. That removes the immediate rate hike pressure for July.

Here is exactly what your community can expect today

June 25, 2026

Money Makers,

The Fed's favorite inflation report just dropped. Here is your breakdown.

What was expected:

Core PCE: +0.3% month over month

Annual rate: around 4.1%

Tuesday, June 23 | 10:15 AM ET

Three things happened this morning that are moving your money RIGHT NOW. Let me break them down and tell you exactly what to watch.

 1. SOUTH KOREA TECH CRASH → US TECH SELLOFF

South Korea's market crashed nearly 10% overnight. Samsung and SK Hynix (two of the world's biggest chip companies) dropped 12%+ in one session. That selloff bled directly into US markets this morning.

Nasdaq is down. Tech is red. Chip stocks are under pressure.

What to watch: If Nasdaq holds above yesterday's low, the selloff is contained. If it breaks below, expect another leg down in tech this afternoon.

June 23, 2026 | Luxentrics Capital

THE NUMBER IS IN

 Flash Manufacturing PMI: 54.6

Previous was 55.1 - came in slightly below expectations.

Still ABOVE 50 which means the economy is still expanding. But the slowdown from 55.1 to 54.6 tells us momentum is cooling slightly.

WHAT THE MARKET IS DOING RIGHT NOW

I just dropped the full economic calendar for this week inside the community, and I need you to save this because Thursday is going to move your portfolio.

Here is what we are watching this week:

Monday (Today)

Light day. No major reports. The market is still digesting the Iran deal news from overnight. Watch oil continue to pull back.

Tuesday June 23

Here's where we stand right now.

Futures have barely moved since 6 PM. The market is holding its breath and honestly that's the most honest signal it can give right now.

S&P 500 ▼ -0.21%

Nasdaq ▼ -0.21%

Oil ▼ flat at $75.84

Gold ▼ -0.50%

 LUXENTRICS CAPITAL: Weekend Market Brief

Saturday, June 20, 2026

Good afternoon - here is everything you need to know heading into Monday.

 Iran Deal Still Fragile

A memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran is in place but under pressure. Talks are happening in Switzerland right now. Iran's military announced a Strait of Hormuz closure due to ceasefire violations, but US forces report shipping traffic is still moving. Ceasefires are declared but guns are still firing in Lebanon. This is why markets are not fully celebrating yet.

 Markets Closed Strong Thursday

✦ Oil Prices; First Thing

Check crude oil (WTI) the moment markets open. If oil spikes above $85/barrel that means the market is pricing in deal collapse risk. If it stays flat or drops the deal is still holding psychologically.

✦ The S&P 500 Open

Watch the first 15 minutes. The Wednesday rally was built on Iran deal optimism. If talks stay stalled over the weekend expect a pullback at open. A drop under 1% is normal noise. Anything over 2% is a real signal.

✦ Treasury Yields

Watch the 10-year Treasury yield. If it rises Monday that means inflation fear is coming back and mortgage rates will follow back up. If it stays flat or drops the peace deal framework is still being priced in.